Understanding and Combating Russian and Chinese Influence ...Influence and Escalation: Implications of Russian and ... Kremlin Watch. Amid this backdrop, a small and informal group gathered on May 2, 2019 in Washington, DC. The former Soviet Union used propaganda at home to strengthen domestic views of the state and information operations abroad to foster unrest among its adversaries and create favorable conditions on the battlefield. Russiaâs global strategy for reasserting itself as a geopolitical superpower has led to an increased presence in Africa, where it has broadened efforts to shape the continentâs politics and pursue new economic opportunities to allay the effects of sanctions.While the presence of Russian military instructors and paramilitary groups in Libya and the Central African Republic ⦠As Kevin McCauley noted in his book, Russian Influence Campaigns against the West, the Soviets developed what they believed was an objective, scientific framework for evaluating information operations: reflexive control theory. He has a background in research on Russian and Chinese online information operations and is a recognized expert, having ⦠A social media influence and infiltration operation led by the Internet Research Agency (IRA); A cyber hacking operation carried out by the Russian military intelligence (GRU); and; An infiltration operation of the Trump campaign. Russian Information Operations in Estonia and Latvia: How ...Influence and Escalation: Implications of Russian and ... To develop best approaches to these troubling trends, the United States must first understand the challenges posed by China and Russian Influence and Intelligence in the Western Balkans An Convicted Russian Influence Agent With Ties To US Republicans Becomes Russian MP January 9 th , 2022 15:13 US media reported in November that a convicted Russian influence agent with strong ties to the Republican Party and Donald Trump had become a member of the Russian parliament. Russian Influence Operations in Washington. Russian-Related Threats to the 2020 US Presidential ... Russia has used these same tactics in recent years against other democracies, particularly in Three main additional events triggered pro-Russian influence operations after 2019. Russia has long been an innovator in the use of information and misinformation by its military. September 8 th, 2021 15:58. Russian Influence Operations Target Americans. AUGUST 13, 2021 â A new study by Douglas Wilbur, a visiting scholar in the UTSA Department of Communication, examines the claims made by the fact-checking website Prop or Not that Russian propaganda targets the American public. Russianrussian influence This documentâs conclusions are Analysis of the operation underscores that there are many remaining unknowns about Russia's military capabilities, especially in the aftermath of its military reforms and modernization program. This chapter investigates the evolution of Russian hybrid means and the ends to which they are applied. Technology-enabled influence operations, including disinformation, will likely figure prominently in adversary efforts to impede U.S. crisis response and alliance management in high-risk, high-impact scenarios under a nuclear shadow. Russian Influence Operations on Twitter. Russia's actions in the Baltics include a combination of nonviolent covert action to influence or undermine target governments, violent but deniable covert action â to offer foreign government officials preferential deals in return for influence. Old Influence Operations Playbook, New Media Tools. Immediate steps need to be taken to halt malign Russian influence. Members of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee traveled to Ukraine and Poland in 2016 and learned about Russian operations to influence their elections. This book examines Russian influence operations globally, in Europe, and in Russiaâs neighboring countries, and provides a comprehensive overview of the latest technologies and forms of strategic communication employed in hybrid warfare. Chinese and Russian influence doesn't come through just information operations. This report is a declassified version of a highly classified assessment. Russian cyber operations, now well known for their role in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, have also been used to exert influence to achieve policy objectives in Europe. This is the textbook for a graduate course in cyber that isn't being taught yet. But for influence operations that are more directly focused on a particular policy outcome, only those related to that issue will be effective. Twitter has taken action against a slew of state-linked influence operations run from Russia, Iran and Armenia in recent days, the company announced Tuesday. He has a background in research on Russian and Chinese online information operations and is a recognized expert, having ⦠Russiaâs present leaders fear that U.S. advantages in information technology allow Washington and its allies to undermine Russian social, cultural, and political institutions as part of its broader campaign to ensure Western geopolitical dominance. Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections has focused American attention on the long-standing and complicated subject of malign foreign influence operations. Russian influence operations in Canada are clandestine operations conducted by Russian government and government-affiliated entities against Canada. by Cliff Kincaid on September 23, 2014. Both Russia and China view influence operations as a key tool to project their power and influence abroad. Russian Influence In Lithuania. The conceptual confusion is regrettable but also unsurprising. The 2007 DDoS attack on Estonia brought attention to large-scale attacks but network probing and small-scale hacks sometimes go unnoticed. OPCW, WikiLeaks, and Russian Influence Operations. Russia was conducting political influence operations supported by intelligence activities. Ben Dubow on Detecting and Countering Malign Influence Operations. Russian Influence Operations on Twitter. Finding UK-related Tweets is not an easy task. Read more. Ben Dubow on Detecting and Countering Malign Influence Operations. Russian influence operations are more sophisticated than seen before and now better designed to target the audience in different countries. Foreign and Defense Policy Europe and Eurasia. Jabbed in the Back: Mapping Russian and Chinese Information Operations During COVID-19 Amplifiers: How Pro-Kremlin Narratives Spread in French-Speaking Facebook The GLOBSEC Vulnerability Index: Evaluating susceptibility to foreign malign influence in 8 Central European & Western Balkan countries Finally, a third model of conducting influence operations is to use Russiaâs state-owned enterprises â Rosneft, Gazprom, Rosatom, Rostech, etc. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK think tank, published a study last year examining Chinaâs and Russiaâs influence operations in Austria. by Cliff Kincaid on June 23, 2014. On matters important for Kremlin. But the Russians were not eager to take credit for their own efforts. In the context of Russian operations in Ukraine, we are interested today in two kinds of activities. According to the Annual address on foreign policy goals from 2016, Poland acknowledges that Russia seeks to expand its sphere of influence and inhibit the democratic transition of Eastern Europe with the means of hybrid activities, including propaganda. The Russian influence campaign that occurred during the 2016 US Presidential election is a key example of this emerging practice of what this report refers to as soft cyber influence operations. Modern Russian intelligence operations, cyber intrusions and influence operations have found both potency in the proliferation of social media technologies and a receptive target in the existing political and social divisions in the United States. Although the overall impact of Russian disinformation operations in the 2016 election has not been conclusively determined, many have suggested that such operations swung thousands of votes in key swing states, possibly affecting the final election outcome.l Further, the threat presented by the These recent Russian efforts reflect a long history of influence operations. Intelligence agencies have found that Russia used influence operations to interfere with the 2016 presidential election in favor of Trumpâs campaign and conducted operations in Trumpâs favor in 2020. Summary This short paper lays out an attempt to measure how much activity from Russian state-operated accounts released in the dataset made available by Twitter in October 2018 was targeted at the United Kingdom. disinformation operations were at the center of Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. about Russian influence operations in Europe. Intelligence experts are monitoring the "competition between democratic systems and ⦠Russia can select from a very large toolbox when engaging in influence operations.The different tools are all ultimately used in attempts to influence personal views and/or public opinion. Russiaâs many activities have put the West on the defensive. Kremlin Watch is a strategic program of the European Values Center for Security Policy which aims to expose and confront instruments of Russian influence and disinformation operations focused against Western democracies. During the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, Kilimnik provided the Russian Intelligence Services with sensitive information on polling and campaign strategy. China's influence operations offer a glimpse into the future of information warfare. The Free Russia Foundation, a US think tank, reported last month about Russiaâs influence operations in Lithuania. Russiaâs approach to information warfare is holistic, and includes both cyber strikes and information operations as cohesive elements that work in tandem to achieve Russian foreign policy goals. Ben Dubow is CTO and founder of Omelas, a firm that provides data and analysis on how nations manipulate the web to achieve their geopolitical goals. It follows with sections on Russiaâs use of force and military power; influence and cyber operations; and foreign economic policies. About. While Russian influence operations have a history that goes far beyond the concept of hybrid warfare, they have seldom gotten such attention. These operations have continued through 2020 . The threat landscape of the upcoming election differs from 2016 and 2018; threat actors and activity groups who previously targeted elections have largely remained on the sidelines. Information aggression is increasing in frequency and intensity. The Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC), a front company for Yevgeniy Prigozhin's influence operations in Africa. Media reports, including dramatic documentaries and breathless biopics on the ten Russian âillegalsâ arrested ⦠Combined with hack-and-leak operations targeting a senior Clinton aide and the Democratic National Committee, as well as efforts to break into multiple statesâ voting systems, the Russian influence operation represented an unprecedented level of direct interference in U.S. politics by a foreign power. To discuss these questions and gauge the impact of Russian influence operations in the Western Balkans, The Henry Jackson Society is holding a panel discussion with Dr Dimitar Bechev, Dr Mira MiloÅ¡eviÄ-Juaristi and Professor Vesko GarÄeviÄ. Senator McCain called for a special select committee of the U.S. Senate to investigate Russian meddling in the election, and called election meddling an "act of war". The head of the firm behind a report on ongoing Russian influence campaigns in the United States was part of a Democratic project to create fake Russian bots ahead of the Alabama special election in December 2017. â to offer foreign government officials preferential deals in return for influence. A new Russia scandal has ⦠Influence operations are selected from a very large toolbox spanning all three domains â the physical, the digital and the cognitive. The ⦠Countering Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts. "Unmasking Maskirovka," is Daniel Bagge's systematic deconstruction of how Russian cyber-influence operations are so deadly. The Ukraine Crisis Media Centerâs Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group (HWAG) has compiled a report on major operations of Russian information influence in Ukraine in the first half of 2021.. Independent numbers are hard to come by. The Baltic Sea Eastern shores were perceived by Russians as a âwindow to Europeâ. This chapter is part of a volume due out with Springer in early 2021, titled The Russian Federation in Global Information Warfare: Influence Operations in Europe and Its Near Abroad, edited by Vladimir Sazonov of the University of Tartu and Holger Mölder, Archil Chochia and Tanel Kerikmäe of the Tallinn University of Technology. He found evidence that popular sites such ⦠Dr. Vartanova also argued that Russia aims to use its influence to upset the current multi-polar world order in which the US is currently leading. eventually Russian rule and influence. Unlike some EU countries, condemnation of Russian influence is seen on a bipartisan scale, drawing criticism from the right, left, and center. Russiaâs preeminent goals in the Balkans have been to refine their disinformation tactics and erode Western influence in the region. The Kremlin has rapidly exploited the recent absence of Western involvement in the Central African Republic. Still, the example of Turkey illustrates the limits of natural gas as a lever of influence for Russia. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United States. In Montenegro, Russiaâs military intelligence service, or GRU, launched a classic influence operation in 2015 to try to stop the countryâs NATO accession process by laundering funds to the leaders of a small pro-Russia political party and by engaging in disinformation operations to cast doubt on the benefits of NATO membership. Russian Influence Operations Target Americans Cliff Kincaid A major case of what intelligence experts call "influence operations" emanating from Moscow is this week's "Rhodes Forum," which is sponsored by Vladimir Putin's close associate and former KGB official Vladimir Yakunin. When we use the term âweâ it refers to an assessment by all three agencies. Russia's operations in Crimea benefited from highly favorable circumstances â political, historical, geographical, and military â that limit their generalizability. RUSSIAN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS street protests and the deployment of motorcycle gangs. One day soon the leading schools in the West will be scrambling to teach this to intelligence officers, journalists, and political consultants. Russian influence operations include a "toolkit of subversive statecraft" first developed by the Bolsheviks and later the Soviet Union and now "upgraded for the digital age," Mitchell said. The term âinfluence operationâ is, after all, used rather vaguely by Russian theorists themselves. Researcher shows how Russian influence can occur in alternative U.S. media. The effort to better understand Russiaâs covert influence operations is being coordinated by James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence. Through various proxies, the Russian government carried out a multi-pronged attack against the United States that aimed to amplify pre-existing divisions in American society, sow distrust in the democratic process, and incite conflict. This book examines Russian influence operations globally, in Europe, and in Russiaâs neighboring countries, and provides a comprehensive overview of the latest technologies and forms of strategic communication employed in hybrid warfare. Consistent with 2016 and 2018, however, is that Russia continues to pose the greatest threat to the 2020 U.S. presidential elections, based on past success in conducting phishing and cyberattack operations, a relentless persisten⦠Russian propaganda arms and security forces are propping up the country's embattled leader in exchange for decisive influence in the region. WikiLeaksâ and Russian media operations continued to influence public debate in Egypt after Mubarak stepped down. Summary This short paper lays out an attempt to measure how much activity from Russian state-operated accounts released in the dataset made available by Twitter in October 2018 was targeted at the United Kingdom. Twitter scrubs accounts tied to Russian, Iranian influence operations. Influence operations, which seek to leverage media and propaganda efforts as well as business and political ties to attain national goals are, if not always aboveboard, surely short of armed conflict. The second major event was the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, in which Turkey and Russia served as major external stakeholders. The aim of these influence operations is âprimarily to denigrate Vice President Biden and what the Russians see as kind of an anti-Russian establishment," he said. Dr Dimitar Bechev is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. Senateâs Outside Russia Investigators Tied To Russian Bot âFalse Flagâ. Moreover, Russia expands its influence in local communities through influence operations online, national media, and growing ex-patriot communities around the world. Russian influence operations include a "toolkit of subversive statecraft" first developed by the Bolsheviks and later the Soviet Union and now "upgraded for the digital age," Mitchell said. French and Russian Influence Operations Go Head to Head Targeting Audiences in Africa On December 15, Facebook announced that it had taken down three separate networks that it had discovered for âcoordinated inauthentic ⦠Prigozhin is a Russian financier of the Internet Research Agency (IRA), the Russian troll farm that OFAC previously designated for interfering in the 2016 presidential election. In 1710 the Russian Tsar, Peter I conquered the North-East part of current Latvia â Vidzeme, which together with Riga provided an exit to the Baltic Sea and its important trading lines. Both Russia and China recognize their conventional military disadvantage vis-à-vis conflict with the United ⦠According to the Estonian Internal Security Service, Russian influence operations in Estonia form a complex system of financial, political, economic and espionage activities in Republic of Estonia for the purposes of influencing Estonia's political and economic decisions in ways considered favourable to Russian Federation and conducted under the doctrine of near abroad. The Weakest Link: Russian Influence Operation in the Netherlands Reveals Vulnerabilities in EU Foreign Policy Powers. Titled âOverview of the major Russian information influence operations in Ukraine for the first half of 2021,â it breaks down the information operations, identifies key local actors ⦠Continuing influence. What the Mueller report tells us about Russian influence operations. Through the Address, Poland also calls for enhancement of NATO-EU cooperation on the field of countering disinformation and influence operations and increasing cybersecurity. The Ukraine Crisis Media Centerâs Hybrid Warfare Analytical Group (HWAG) has compiled a report on major operations of Russian information influence in Ukraine in the first half of 2021.. Terrorism. 14 The Kremlin sees information as a new type of weapon ⦠Konstantin Kilimnik (Kilimnik) is a Russian and Ukrainian political consultant and known Russian Intelligence Services agent implementing influence operations on their behalf. November 15 th, 2021 14:46. During the twentieth century, the Soviet Union exploited âInfluence operationâ has become an easy catch-all term denoting a variety of hostile though usually non-military acts. The first was the emergence of COVID-19 and the onset of the global race for vaccines. The Russian-led alliance, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), has said the force is part of a âpeacekeepingâ mission to ⦠Finding UK-related Tweets is not an easy task. As of January , when the Turkstream pipeline across the Black Sea began operations, Turkey stopped receiving Russian gas through the Trans-Balkan Pipeline from Ukraine, which it had done since the mids. While bearing many similarities to influence operations, and often using many of the same techniques, Russiaâs destabilization operations aim not just to influence, but also to stoke or amplify divisions and disorder among Russiaâs adversaries. Countering Russiaâs influence operations in the Balkans. The 2016 presidential election is a case in point. This theory developed out of research into psychology and cybernetics as the Soviet Ministry of Defense sought to incorporate the ⦠Russiaâs relations with key countries and regions. âInfluence operationâ has become an easy catch-all term denoting a variety of hostile though usually non-military acts. The conceptual confusion is regrettable but also unsurprising. The term âinfluence operationâ is, after all, used rather vaguely by Russian theorists themselves. Chinese And Russian Influence In Austria. Their efforts are overt, using government offices and spokesmen to criticize American leaders, U.S.-based events, and U.S. engagement abroad, as well as covert where they seek to hide their involvement in the campaign. Convicted Russian Influence Agent With Ties To US Republicans Becomes Russian MP January 9 th , 2022 15:13 US media reported in November that a convicted Russian influence agent with strong ties to the Republican Party and Donald Trump had become a member of the Russian parliament. The report suggests a grudging respect for the scale and creativity of Russian influence operations. Through the Address, Poland also calls for enhancement of NATO-EU cooperatio⦠Russia uses messaging and intimidation in its efforts to influence multiple actors and countries. 2016 US presidential election and draws on our understanding of previous Russian influence operations. For Norway, the challenge is Russiaâs attempts to fuel disagreements people in the north have with decisions taken in Oslo. disinformation operations were at the center of Russiaâs interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. RealClearDefense. While Russia has brought this issue into the mainstream political conversation, concerns over the ability of foreign nationsâparticularly autocraciesâto exploit the openness of Americaâs ⦠While the Polish political establishment is highly concerned about Russian influence, certain fringe groups on the far-right have advocated for closer relations with Russia. On 24 November 2019, WikiLeaks posted an email, purportedly from a whistleblower on the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) team assigned to investigate the chemical weapons attack on the Syrian city of Douma. The report then analyzes U.S.-Russia relations, including U.S. policy during the current and prior Administrations and recent congressional actions. Given the growing importance of comprehensive information warfare as a new and rapidly advancing type of ⦠The report describes in stunning detail the inner workings of the full Russian operation. November 9, 2021. While the Soviet Union may have collapsed nearly 30 years ago, Russia believes it is at war with the United States and that the United States is at war with it. The Russian leadershipâs best bet against the collective West is currently in these operations. Titled âOverview of the major Russian information influence operations in Ukraine for the first half of 2021,â it breaks down the information operations, identifies key local actors ⦠Russiaâs long-standing, overall foreign policy objective is to weaken adversaries, particularly countries on its periphery, those in NATO, and the United States, by any means available, and its information warfare targets social cohesion and political systems toward this aim. Ben Dubow is CTO and founder of Omelas, a firm that provides data and analysis on how nations manipulate the web to achieve their geopolitical goals. Finally, a third model of conducting influence operations is to use Russiaâs state-owned enterprises â Rosneft, Gazprom, Rosatom, Rostech, etc. On May 7, 2020, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) hosted a virtual event coinciding with the release of a new CNAS report, Dangerous Synergies: Countering Chinese and Russian Digital Influence Operations, by Daniel Kliman, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Kristine Lee, Joshua Fitt, and Carisa Nietsche. Dr Dimitar Bechev is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Washington DC. Another essential step to countering information warfare is for governments targeted by Russian influence operations to develop a metric of damage that acknowledges a range of objectives, including influencing elections.